Lab Results - Analysis
Last Updated 6 February 2008
We have eleven(11) participants so far. We have two(2) groups who are closely related. Five(5) participants are not closely related to any other participants.
Following the guidelines set forth by Family Tree DNA and World Families Network, I can offer the following explanation of what we have so far:
- Out of eleven(11) participants, we have five(5) different haplogroups. Six are haplogroup "I1a", two are haplogroup "R1b1", and one each of haplogroups J2f1, K2, and R1b. The J2f1 and K2 have been confirmed by SNP testing. (That is why they are colored green.) All haplogroups in red have been predicted by Family Tree DNA.
- Each of the result sequences were run through Whit Athey's Haplogroup Predictor. The two(2) confirmed SNP's were as expected. Of the seven(7) predicted by FTDNA, both R1b and R1b1 showed a prediction of R1b as this is as much depth provided by the tool for these groups. The six(6) I1a's were all predicted to be I1a. The fitness score being near 75 for each.)
- Our first Matched Group is with kits #88152 and #94144. This is our first actual matched group for the project. This is also confirmed by the paper trail and the results are not unexpected.
| In comparing 67 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 0, the probability that #88152 and #94144 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 89.79% |
8 generations is a 98.96% |
12 generations is a 99.89% |
16 generations is a 99.99% |
20 generations is a 100% |
24 generations is a 100% |
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- Our second match is with kits #64291 and #104076. This is our second actual matched group for the project. A 25 marker exact match would increase the probability that these two participants share a common ancestor. A paper trail confirmation would also be beneficial. (Participants, please submit your pedigrees).
RECOMMENDATION - #104076 upgrade to 25 marker test.
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 0, the probability that #64291 and #104076 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 33.57% |
8 generations is a 55.88% |
12 generations is a 70.69% |
16 generations is a 80.53% |
20 generations is a 87.07% |
24 generations is a 91.41% |
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UPDATE! - February 6, 2008 - GROUP R-02 - We now have four(4) matched participants in this group! Kit #104076 has now been upgraded to 37 markers and we have an additional two(2) sets of 37 markers to work with. The tables immediately below this text show the scientific percentages. These percentages do confirm our paper trail and give us some very powerful evidence that these men all descended from the same "Group Patriarch".
Looking at the Results Chart, one can see that among the four(4) participants, there are a total of six(6) mutations highlighted. In the scientific community these values are referred to as "Short Tandem Repeats" or STR's for short. The number listed, at the marker location, is the number of times that particular code is repeated at that location in the DNA sequence. Statistically this mutation, or change, occurs at different rates for different marker locations. The markers labeled in red on the Results Chart, have been identified as faster mutating markers. Meaning they have been noted to change more frequently from generation to generation.
You might ask, how do we determine which markers are the "standard" for our patriarch, and which are the mutations? Well, I'm glad you asked. You may have already figured out that we can determine the markers of the common ancestor by deduction. Having four(4) participants who's lineage all differ at the third generation from the common ancestor, and testing approximately nine(9) to eleven(11) generations away, we can deduct that the common markers belong to the common ancestor. We can also surmise that the marker values appearing in the majority of our participants (at any given location) belong to the common ancestor. Of course this deduction can and will be refined by the number of descendants tested. The more sets of results we have, the more certain we can be concerning which reported values are from the common ancestor and not simply like-mutations that just happen to appear in more than one branch. For instance. At the CDYb location, two(2) of our members have a reported value of 37, while the other two(2) have a reported value of 38. Which value is that of the common ancestor? At this point it could be either. Only more test results from other descendants will narrow this down. However, from looking at the WEBB Surname DNA project results, I would tend to lean towards 37 as being the value that John1 of Taunton carried. (This is only a "guestimation" on my part.)
This is a great breakthrough for our project. With this information we can now, with some certainty, identify the DNA marker sequence of John Richmond, b1594, of Taunton, Massachusetts. What makes this stand apart from many other DNA surname projects is the ability to compare what we find here with the great work of Joshua Bailey Richmond. With his extensive documentation of these Richmond descendants, a Genealogist has a ready made template from which to plan his research. And for DNA research we have a visual map to see where the many lines branch off. New researchers or ones that may have hit a wall can gain ideas on which line to focus their efforts.
Someone who is not sure if he is a descendant of "John1" or does not have a complete paper trail, can now have his DNA tested and be assured one way or the other with a good degree of certainty.
To conclude let me say that these findings will be refined, and individual branches can later be identified, as we gain more results from new participants.
In case you were wondering...
#64291 and #104076 are 8th cousins 2x removed,
#64291 and #108322 are 7th cousins 2x removed,
and #104076 and #108322 are 10th cousins.
| In comparing 37 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 1, the probability that #64291 and #104076 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 57.86% |
8 generations is a 88.33% |
12 generations is a 97.21% |
16 generations is a 99.38% |
20 generations is a 99.87% |
24 generations is a 99.97% |
|||||
| In comparing 37 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 3, the probability that #64291 and #108075 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 11.73% |
8 generations is a 46.43% |
12 generations is a 75.53% |
16 generations is a 90.66% |
20 generations is a 96.83% |
24 generations is a 99.01% |
|||||
| In comparing 37 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 2, the probability that #64291 and #108322 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 27.96% |
8 generations is a 67.4% |
12 generations is a 88.35% |
16 generations is a 96.35% |
20 generations is a 98.95% |
24 generations is a 99.71% |
|||||
| In comparing 37 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 4, the probability that #104076 and #108075 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 3.52% |
8 generations is a 25.18% |
12 generations is a 55.32% |
16 generations is a 78.12% |
20 generations is a 90.7% |
24 generations is a 96.43% |
|||||
| In comparing 37 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 3, the probability that #104076 and #108322 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 10.39% |
8 generations is a 42.98% |
12 generations is a 72.27% |
16 generations is a 88.65% |
20 generations is a 95.85% |
24 generations is a 98.6% |
|||||
| In comparing 37 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 3, the probability that #108075 and #108322 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 12.43% |
8 generations is a 48.17% |
12 generations is a 77.1% |
16 generations is a 91.58% |
20 generations is a 97.26% |
24 generations is a 99.18% |
|||||
- The next closest markers are kits #70326 and #96360. They show a genetic distance of only 1. However, since this is comparing only 12 markers, the probability that #70326 and #96360 share a common ancestor are "not clear".
RECOMMENDATION - #70326 upgrade to 25 marker test.
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 1, the probability that #70326 and #96360 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 6.67% |
8 generations is a 18.94% |
12 generations is a 32.64% |
16 generations is a 45.68% |
20 generations is a 57.13% |
24 generations is a 66.71% |
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- After that, kits #70326 and #72149 show a Genetic Distance of 3. However, since this is comparing only 12 markers, the probability that #70326 and #72149 share a common ancestor are, as yet, "pretty slim".
NO RECOMMENDATION.
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 3, the probability that #70326 and #72149 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a .07% |
8 generations is a .69% |
12 generations is a 2.48% |
16 generations is a 5.77% |
20 generations is a 10.57% |
24 generations is a 16.67% |
|||||
- The table below shows just how "unrelated" our initial set of markers are. These estimates are based on computer generated results from Family Tree DNA. This chart is simply to illustrate genetic distance and how it relates to the number of markers and what that indicates, in relation to (pun intended) individuals. We will not always be able to post this complete detail of a table as our project expands. But it does give us an idea what genetic distance is, and what we can infer from it. A twelve(12) marker test upgraded to twenty-five(25) markers can give us more information. As the chart shows, that additional information can give us more precise statistics.
- For more information on Genetic Distance and how to calculate it, read these documents from Family Tree DNA: - 12-markers - 25-markers - 37-markers - 67-markers - Time to Most Recent Common Ancestry Calculator
| In comparing 37 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 41, the probability that #48478 and #50911 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 37 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 48, the probability that #48478 and #64291 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 13, the probability that #48478 and #70326 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 14, the probability that #48478 and #72149 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 37 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 46, the probability that #48478 and #88152 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 37 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 46, the probability that #48478 and #94144 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 25 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 27, the probability that #48478 and #96360 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 9, the probability that #48478 and #104076 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.02% |
20 generations is a 0.07% |
24 generations is a 0.2% |
|||||
| In comparing 37 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 37, the probability that #50911 and #64291 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 17, the probability that #50911 and #70326 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 18, the probability that #50911 and #72149 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 67 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 71, the probability that #50911 and #88152 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 67 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 71, the probability that #50911 and #94144 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 25 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 28, the probability that #50911 and #96360 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 9, the probability that #50911 and #104076 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 12, the probability that #64291 and #70326 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 11, the probability that #64291 and #72149 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a .03% |
20 generations is a .09% |
24 generations is a .24% |
|||||
| In comparing 37 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 16, the probability that #64291 and #88152 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a .02% |
16 generations is a .2% |
20 generations is a 1.13% |
24 generations is a 3.84% |
|||||
| In comparing 37 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 16, the probability that #64291 and #94144 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a .02% |
16 generations is a .2% |
20 generations is a 1.13% |
24 generations is a 3.84% |
|||||
| In comparing 25 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 28, the probability that #64291 and #96360 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 0, the probability that #64291 and #104076 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 33.57% |
8 generations is a 55.88% |
12 generations is a 70.69% |
16 generations is a 80.53% |
20 generations is a 87.07% |
24 generations is a 91.41% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 3, the probability that #70326 and #72149 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a .07% |
8 generations is a .69% |
12 generations is a 2.48% |
16 generations is a 5.77% |
20 generations is a 10.57% |
24 generations is a 16.67% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 12, the probability that #70326 and #88152 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 12, the probability that #70326 and #94144 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 1, the probability that #70326 and #96360 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 6.67% |
8 generations is a 18.94% |
12 generations is a 32.64% |
16 generations is a 45.68% |
20 generations is a 57.13% |
24 generations is a 66.71% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 12, the probability that #70326 and #104076 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 11, the probability that #72149 and #88152 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a .01% |
24 generations is a .03% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 11, the probability that #72149 and #94144 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a .01% |
24 generations is a .03% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 4, the probability that #72149 and #96360 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a .06% |
12 generations is a .32% |
16 generations is a 1% |
20 generations is a 2.31% |
24 generations is a 4.38% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 11, the probability that #72149 and #104076 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.03% |
20 generations is a 0.09% |
24 generations is a 0.24% |
|||||
| In comparing 67 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 0, the probability that #88152 and #94144 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 89.79% |
8 generations is a 98.96% |
12 generations is a 99.89% |
16 generations is a 99.99% |
20 generations is a 100% |
24 generations is a 100% |
|||||
| In comparing 25 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 26, the probability that #88152 and #96360 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 4, the probability that #88152 and #104076 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.04% |
12 generations is a 0.24% |
16 generations is a 0.75% |
20 generations is a 1.76% |
24 generations is a 3.39% |
|||||
| In comparing 25 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 26, the probability that #94144 and #96360 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 4, the probability that #94144 and #104076 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.04% |
12 generations is a 0.24% |
16 generations is a 0.75% |
20 generations is a 1.76% |
24 generations is a 3.39% |
|||||
| In comparing 12 markers, and a Genetic Distance of 13, the probability that #96360 and #104076 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is a 0.00% |
8 generations is a 0.00% |
12 generations is a 0.00% |
16 generations is a 0.00% |
20 generations is a 0.00% |
24 generations is a 0.00% |
|||||
"If you build it, they will come"
DNA projects are a lot like the telephone. When the first person got a telephone the list of people to call was limited. Much like the first telephone users, the first DNA-project-participants did not have many people they could connect to, but they were the pioneers. Eventually, there would be a telephone in every house. (And nowadays, one in every pocket.) As more participants get involved, more connections will be made.
Now, I'm not suggesting that everyone will be carrying their DNA results around with them in their pocket. But the more people that join, the greater likelihood that matches will be found. Send for your kit today while you are thinking about it.